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Investing fundamentals, market logic, and the discipline behind good decisions.
Dow Theory: The Foundation Beneath Modern Charts
Long before the proliferation of indicators, a set of principles emerged that still underpins how we read markets. Dow Theory is less a system than a way of thinking about what a trend actually is.
The Role of the Federal Reserve in Asset Prices
No single institution exerts more influence over asset prices than the central bank. Understanding how its decisions ripple through markets is essential to understanding why markets move as they do.
What "Market Structure" Actually Means
The phrase "market structure" is used constantly and defined rarely. At its core it describes the pattern of highs and lows that reveals whether a market is trending, ranging, or turning.
Supply and Demand as the Only Real Law
Beneath every indicator, pattern, and theory lies a single irreducible truth: price is set by the balance between those who wish to buy and those who wish to sell. Everything else is commentary on this.
Market Breadth and the Health of a Rally
A rising index can conceal a deteriorating market. Breadth measures how many stocks are actually participating, revealing whether an advance rests on broad strength or a narrow and fragile few.
Risk-On, Risk-Off: The Market's Two Moods
Markets swing between two collective moods: an appetite for risk and a flight from it. Recognising which mood prevails explains why unrelated assets so often move together, against all logic of their fundamentals.
The Bond–Equity Relationship
Stocks and bonds are often treated as separate worlds, but they are two halves of a single conversation about risk, return, and the price of money. Reading them together reveals what neither shows alone.
How Interest Rates Reprice Everything
Interest rates are not merely one factor among many. They are the gravitational constant of finance, the rate against which every asset is valued, and when they move, they reprice the entire financial universe.
Liquidity Is the Tide That Moves All Boats
Beneath the analysis of individual assets runs a deeper force that affects everything at once: the availability of money itself. Liquidity is the tide, and when it rises or falls, it moves all boats together.
Market Cycles: Why the Pattern Repeats
Markets move in cycles of expansion and contraction that repeat across generations. The patterns recur not because history is fixed but because the human nature that drives them never changes.
Sector Rotation and the Flow of Capital
Capital does not sit still. It flows between sectors in response to the economic cycle, and understanding where it tends to move, and why, reveals a logic beneath movements that otherwise seem random.
Elliott Wave Theory Without the Mysticism
Elliott Wave Theory attracts devotion and ridicule in equal measure. Stripped of its mystical excess, it contains a genuine insight about the rhythmic way markets advance and retreat.